October 13, 2015

1997 had a warm early October, a little warmer than this year.

16SEP2015      29.0   2.3                           17SEP1997     28.9   2.2
23SEP2015      29.0   2.3                           24SEP1997     28.9   2.2
30SEP2015      29.1   2.4                           01OCT1997    29.1   2.4

07OCT2015      29.1   2.4                           08OCT1997   29.2    2.6

No increase in water temperature, no change in the anomaly during the past week in the 3.4 Niño region.  1997 had an early October surge, 28.9°C to 29.2, so 1997 has the edge for the moment.  2015 so far has shown no such surge in October but trails 1997 by only one tenth of a degree in measured temp 29.1 to 29.2°C.

Despite this little weekly set back, concern about this upcoming event continues to grow, especially for California.

Bill Patzert, a climatologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena California, recently said, “This is as close as you’re going to get to a sure thing.” This El Niño, he said, is “too big to fail”.  Strong words from a government scientist that usually stresses caution and discourages over reaction.

He is speaking to the California media, trying to assure them rain is in deed on the way.  But with that rain, so desperately needed for drought relief, will also come floods and mud slides.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

October 11, 2015

South Carolina rainfall update,

South Carolina rainfall on Saturday October 10, 2015.  Radar estimates reach over 4 inches in areas west of Columbia.  Several Flash Flood Warnings were issued less than a week after last weekend’s catastrophic event.

Forecast model inconsistence,

Another look at the same three days we have been looking at, namely next Saturday, Sunday, Monday,  the 17th, 18, and 19th, basically next weekend.  Strangely, moisture approaching Northern California but not from any tropical influence like we saw in yesterday’s model run.  Nora remains deep in the tropics far away from California.  It is really not unusual to have large differences from run to run.  The Nora forecast is a pretty big change.  However, even with the Nora change, the model still engineers significant moisture into Northern California.  In this run, that is weak Nora in between Hawaii and the soon to develop Olaf.  Next weekend still looks interesting for at least Northern California, that is at least some green hanging around.

GFS 18z run 162 hour forecast for Saturday October 17, 2015  12z

If this forecast actually verified it would be a very welcome wet October weekend in parts of California.

GFS 18z run 186 hour forecast for Sunday October 18, 2015  12z

From the Blog several days ago, “GFS model for the Pacific at 300 hours or about 12 days out shows a 960mb low”.  This was on the 7th so, a 12 day forecast would be around Monday the 19th.  so, ….

The 18z run shows a rather small unimpressive 982mb low for early Monday the 19th.

GFS 18z run 210 hour forecast for Monday October 19, 2015  12z

Where as the 00z run shows a large rather impressive 956mb low for early Monday the 19th.

GFS 00z run 204 hour forecast for Monday October 19, 2015  12z

This is just different runs of the same model.  Forecasters have several models to choose from, all run several times a day.  Weather forecasting has its challenges.  The one clue consistent to all four days we have looked at is this “960mb” low lurking somewhere west of Washington State on Monday the 19th.

These runs also lost interest in anything too serious in the Gulf of Mexico.  Although still an area to watch, big high to north, old front, moisture gathering, definitely  a tropical breeding ground.

The next big test for the 2015 El Niño comes Monday when the next round of weekly anomaly numbers are released.  1997 jumps two tenths in the coming week, will 2015 keep pace?

16SEP2015      29.0   2.3                           17SEP1997     28.9   2.2
23SEP2015      29.0   2.3                           24SEP1997     28.9   2.2
30SEP2015      29.1   2.4                           01OCT1997    29.1   2.4

07OCT2015   Monday                               08OCT1997   29.2    2.6

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, What we don’t, and Why you should care!

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

October 10,  2015

The serious flooding in South Carolina began to get much worse during the day last Saturday.  Look at Saturday morning one week later.

The system is moving quickly so no repeat of last weekend. But still thunder and lightning and downpours to begin the weekend.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle… What we know, What we don’t, and Why you  should care!

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

October 10, 2015 A little hung up on what is next.

The South Carolina disaster hit a little close to home.  I feel like I need watch all this a little more closely.  Which by the way is really the theme of my new e-book.  You have got to watch and be aware.

In my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle… I expressed my opinion that a specific weather forecast beyond 4 or 5 days tends to become climatology.  What is considered “normal” for that location and time of year.  But our current running GFS model, the Global Forecasting System, produces solutions out to 15 days.

So, in the spirit of “what could possibly be next”, let us run that GFS model and see what we find.  Last blog I left you with this forecast panel of the pacific.

GFS model for the Pacific at 300 hours or about 12 days out shows a 960mb low.  This was on the 7th so, a 12 day forecast would be around Monday the 19th.

We are looking at a 960mb low Monday the 19th somewhere west of Washington State.

Yes, another tropical system in the East Pacific forecast to become a hurricane.

One run of the GFS today thinks next Sunday the remnants of this system will be west of Santa Maria headed into California.  Not the end of the world, the system looks quite small.  But after Joaquin last weekend and Hurricane Oho spinning past Hawaii this week, how could there even be the possibility of another tropical system affecting the U.S.?

It is just one model run.  There are 4 in a day and it is over a week away.  In South Carolina a week changed the landscape.  But like in a novel, you must suspend the disbelief.

GFS 18z run 210 hour forecast for Sunday October 18, 2015 12z

In the next six panels, the model takes the remnants of what will become Hurricane Nora, and swings her right up to California and into San Francisco Bay area by late Sunday.

And yes by panel 6th panel we are at Monday morning October 19.  Moisture from Nora still in California, and only a 964mb low west of Washington State.  We start all this with the snapshot of a 960 pacific low.  Also the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico depicted the model 2 days ago appears to be alive and well.

Go to full screen and increase your page size to 200 for the best view of the graphs below.

GFS 18z run 174 and 186 hour forecast for Saturday October 17, 2015 00z and 12z

GFS 18z run 198 and 210 hour forecast for Sunday October 18, 2015 00z and 12z

GFS 18z run 222 and 234 hour forecast for Monday October 19, 2015 00z and 12z

So, if this weekend is quiet and pleasant where you are enjoy!   Tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific is a sign El Niño is alive and well, and that means more amazing weather is just days away.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, What we don’t, and Why you should care!

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

October 08, 2015   Another Hurricane, and yet another miss for Hawaii.  There have been a number of storms that have been in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands this season, but none so far, have had the impact that the one tropical storm had last year.  But with our current El Niño in full swing, warming the waters of the Central and Eastern Pacific, the threat to Hawaii from tropical systems will continue well into November.

Water vapor picture of Hurricane Oho from early Wednesday morning.  The Advisory  is from Wednesday afternoon.

Hurricane Oho Advisory Number 020
Issued at 500 PM HST WED OCT 07 2015
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
Location: 30.5N 144.5W
ABOUT 995 MI…1605 KM NE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1045 MI…1685 KM NE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 85 MPH…140 KM/H
Present movement: NNE or 20 degrees AT 41 MPH…67 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 968 MB…28.59 INCHES

A tropical forecast track you just do not see every day.  A system expected to retain tropical storm strength and status to near to near 40 degrees north latitude.  That is pretty far north for our West Coast. And a tractable post-tropical storm to the coast of British Columbia late Thursday early Friday.

The little purple dot, center image east northeast of Hawaii is the hurricane.  The advisory has the storm moving NNE at 41 mph.  Image below is only 18 hours after image above, notice Hawaiian Islands are left far behind.

The storm is really moving, already passing west of Washington state late in the day on Thursday October 8th.

Finally, a quick tease illustrating that the long cool weather season has begun. There will be something to watch just about every day from now until spring.

GFS model for the Pacific at 300 hours or about 12 days out shows a 960mb low, similar to a Category 2 hurricane, some 600 miles from the Pacific Northwest.  So, there is a possibility for two strong remnant tropical systems near the Pacific Northwest in less than two weeks. The purple dot near the tip of Cuba could become an interesting feature for Florida.  Positive note: in this snap shot, most the United States actually pretty quiet.

The clean up and recovery has not even begun in South Carolina and new concerns are already on the distant horizon.  Welcome to El Niño.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, What we don’t, and Why you should care!

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

No Hurricane, but still heavy rain!

The spaghetti chart is one of the better illustrations currently of the major hurricane threat going out to sea. So, no land falling Hurricane for the East Coast this weekend.  It’s kind of  amazing that it was even a possibility.  But we looked at three model runs over three different days that brought distinct areas of low pressure westward into the U.S.

But in the four days we have discussed this storm system it really has not gone anywhere except into the Central Bahamas for an extended stay.   Overnight positions over the last four nights show a southwest small loop into the Bahamas and then back out.  Overall the satellite picture below looks pretty similar to the last several nights.   A red blob well east southeast of Miami.

September 30  200 AM EDT…0600 UTC….25.5N 72.0W

October      01   200 AM EDT…0600 UTC …23.5N 73.4W

October      02   200 AM EDT…0600 UTC… 23.0N 74.7W

October      02   200 AM EDT…0600 UTC…24.8N 73.7W

The following pictures are water vapor images, they show where the rich moisture is in contrast to the drier air.   The story at the moment is the trail of moisture from Joaquin northward to the Carolinas.  The Hurricane is 500 miles away and moving away, but its moisture is still causing serious problems. This is an example of what is called “transitional season high amplitude flow”, spring or autumn weather patterns with blocking ridges and cut off lows.  These types of patterns are the most difficult for forecasters and forecast models.

Shown for comparison to water vapor image above and pic in yesterdays blog taken at the same time of day.

Columbia South Carolina radar showing what is going on under the bright white clouds.

Wild Bill

October 02, 2015 Friday

A BIG sigh of relief…Still some questions

Now all of a sudden,  track forecasts for Joaquin are trending not only off shore,  but well off shore.  So, overall a much brighter outlook for the weekend for the Eastern Seaboard, although still a few issues.  Joaquin is a large, strong storm and will be pushing against a large high pressure system over Eastern Canada.

Let us look at the same products we have viewed in recent days and track the progress of our system.  First, the Hurricane Center track is now well offshore.

Now the forecast for Sunday morning from the GFS, looks much like yesterdays run with the Hurricane well east of North Carolina.

Here the forecast for Sunday morning from the 00Z NAM and there is our storm just a few miles from Savannah.  So, not all operational models are on board with the out to sea idea.   And over three days the Sunday morning position of our Hurricane has swung from Southeast Virginia to Southern New Jersey to a position closer to Bermuda.

So, with all that has gone on with this storm in the last 3 or 4 days , I suspect there may still be a wrinkle or two before this is completely over.  Also notice in the pic below the storm really has not gone very far in the last 48 hours.  It is still in the Bahamas southeast of Miami.  I have worked with this stuff for years and it still amazes me. The storm itself has barely moved, but the forecast positions have drifted literally hundreds of miles.

The water vapor channel overnight clearly shows the Sandy-like  upper disturbance that has developed over Alabama and Georgia.  It is the development and evolution of this particular feature that has made and may continue to make the forecast so difficult and changeable.

We will end with a positive chart, the spaghetti plots are currently mainly well offshore.

Stay tuned.

Wild Bill