Monthly Archives: January 2016

El Niño winter delivers record snowstorm.

January 28, 2016

Our El Niño winter has delivered an incredible snowstorm to Washington, Baltimore and New York City.

January 24, 2016 snowstorm totals for selected Washington, Baltimore and New York locations.

Location                                    Storm total                                                                 record/storm
DULLES INTERNATIONAL  29.3  1230 AM  1/24  AIRPORT                        32.4 Feb 05, 2010
BWI AIRPORT                          29.2  1230 AM  1/24  AIRPORT                       26.8 Feb 16, 2003

Location                                   Storm total                    calendar day  total      record/day
CENTRAL PARK                     26.8   100 AM  1/24  ASOS                      26.6 / 24.1 Feb 12, 2006 NYC/JFK AIRPORT                 30.5   100 AM  1/24  FAA OBSERVER   30.3 / 21.6 Feb 17, 2003
NEWARK AIRPORT               28.1   100 AM  1/24  FAA OBSERVER  27.5 /  25.9 Dec 26, 1947
NYC/LA GUARDIA                 27.9   100 AM  1/24  FAA OBSERVER  27.9 / 23.3  Feb 12, 2006

There are many different ways to report snow amounts. There are storm totals, calendar day amounts(Midnight to Midnight), and amounts in other 24 periods,(example, daily obs are 12z or 7amEST).  So it can get a little confusing when determining what is an actual record and what is close to a record.

For the Baltimore Airport and most of the New York City area these are indeed record amounts of snow.

700mb charts below show the storm blossom and slide more east than north focusing the punch at the Mid-Atlantic. However mature circulation does manage to reach as far north as NYC area by Saturday morning the 23rd.

Friday morning 22nd                              Friday evening 22nd                 Saturday morning 23rd

January 23, 2016mb700 NewCopy

17th, …. 5 days before Blizzard subtropical plume from El Niño region already established.  The plume reaches from the equatorial Pacific across Mexico and the Gulf Of Mexico into Georgia, Florida and the Southeast.January 17, 2016satellitepage0345z - BlogCopy

19th, … Disturbance over SE has moved away but the tropical plume remains.January 19, 2016satellitepage0345z - BlogCopy

21st, … new disturbance southern plains, tropical plume broadens January 21, 2016satellitepage0645z - BlogCopy

22nd early, … new disturbance gaining strength while approaching but not yet directly connected to the plume.January 22, 2016satellitepage0645z - BlogCopy

22nd late, …maturing storm system mergers with tropical plume,January 22, 2016satellitepage2215z - BlogCopy

23rd early, … and throws the moisture into below freezing air across Mid-Atlantic.January 23, 2016satellitepage0615z - BlogCopy

Quite impressive,   impressive enough to challenge all time snowfall records in several major East Coast cities.  Below other El Niño related events in recent weeks, ….

January 08, 2016  Bonnet Carre Spillway to open to divert water out of Mississippi River.

January 09, 2016  CAPE CORAL TORNADO EF-2                                                                                            January 15, 2016   FORT MYERS TORNADO EF-1                                                                                  January 17, 2016   SARASOTA TORNADO EF-2, Fatalities 2                                                                      January 27, 2016   POMPANO BEACH EF-1

Mississippi River floods, East Coast snowstorms, and Florida tornadoes oddly enough are all in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Update on the west coming soon,

Crater Lake entrance in December:annesprings15-12-07-01

Crater Lake entrance Tuesday January 26, annesprings16-01-26-01

Cover2 redo

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Wild Bill.

Thunder, lightning and rotation just off of Santa Barbara.

January 07, 2015

Thunder, lightning and rotation just off of Santa Barbara in the overnight hours.

1208am   Composite Reflectivity                                     and                Storm Relative Motion

January 07, 2016santabarbaracouplet0804z - blog2Copy

1253am   Composite Reflectivity                                     and                Storm Relative Motion

January 07, 2016santabarbaracouplet0848z - Copy

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Cover2 redo

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill.

Another record warm month in the 3.4 Niño region

January 07, 2016

December (12) 2015 is Another record warm month in the 3.4 Niño region.

Warmest monthly SST’s for the 3.4 Niño region
YR   MON   NINO3.4    ANOM
1982  12      29.21    +2.64
1983   1        29.36    +2.79

1997  11     29.32    +2.67
1997  12     29.26    +2.69

2015  10    29.15   +2.46                                                                                                                                     2015  11    29.60  +2.98                                                                                                                                2015  12   29.39   +2.82     

November and December of 2015 achieved the two highest monthly averages for the 3.4 Niño region since 1950 eclipsing the warmest months of both 1997 and  1982.                 

Weekly SST comparison of this season to 1997 for the 3.4 Niño region since July.  First number at months end represent three month or 13 week averages,  Second column is an average of three consecutive sets of 13 week averages.   These values are similar to values in the ERSSTv3b data set for determining the ONI.    

Date             temp  anomaly                          Date             temp  anomaly

01JUL2015       28.9 1.4                                     02JUL1997     29.0 1.5                                     08JUL2015      28.8 1.5                                    09JUL1997     28.9 1.6
15JUL2015      28.9 1.7                                    16JUL1997     29.0 1.8
22JUL2015      28.8 1.6                                    23JUL1997     28.8 1.7
29JUL2015      28.8 1.7   1.246 1.054           30JUL1997     28.9 1.9  1.308

05AUG2015      28.9 1.9                                     06AUG1997     28.8 1.8
12AUG2015      28.9 2.0                                    13AUG1997     28.9 2.0
19AUG2015      28.9 2.1                                    20AUG1997     28.9 2.1
26AUG2015      29.0 2.2   1.631 1.318           27AUG1997     28.8 2.0  1.670  1.254

02SEP2015      28.9 2.1                                     03SEP1997     28.9 2.1
09SEP2015      29.0 2.3                                     10SEP1997     28.9 2.2
16SEP2015      29.0 2.3   1.900 1.592          17SEP1997     28.9 2.2
23SEP2015      29.0 2.3   1.931 1.603          24SEP1997     28.9 2.2  1.931  1.636
30SEP2015      29.1 2.4   1.964 1.614          01OCT1997     29.1 2.4  1.964  1.647

07OCT2015      29.1 2.4                                  08OCT1997     29.2 2.6
14OCT2015      29.1 2.4                                  15OCT1997     29.2 2.5
21OCT2015      29.2 2.5                                  22OCT1997     29.3 2.6
28OCT2015      29.4 2.7   2.277 1.957        29OCT1997     29.2 2.6  2.254  1.963

04NOV2015      29.5 2.8                                  05NOV1997     29.2 2.6
11NOV2015      29.7 3.0                                  12NOV1997     29.3 2.7
18NOV2015      29.7 3.1                                  19NOV1997     29.3 2.7
25NOV2015      29.6 3.0   2.562 2.268       26NOV1997     29.4 2.8  2.477  2.231

02DEC2015      29.5 2.9                                  03DEC1997     29.2 2.6
09DEC2015      29.4 2.8                                  10DEC1997     29.2 2.7                                                       16DEC2015       29.5 2.9                                   17DEC1997     29.3 2.7
23DEC2015      29.3 2.7                                  24DEC1997     29.3 2.7
30DEC2015      29.3 2.7   2.762  2.534       31DEC1997     29.2 2.7  2.654   2.462

Evidence of El Niño at work  in the Sierra Nevada.

December 11, 2015Halfdome15-12-11-05 - Copy

December 27, 2015December 27, 2015yosemite -blog Copy

January 06, 2016Halfdome16-01-06-02 - Copy

We may have just seen the first major storm in Southern California, but it has been snowing in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada for weeks now. Visible evidence  shows snow depths increasing above Yosemite Valley.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Cover2 redo

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill.

Stormy period for Southern California

January 03, 2016

Pictured in this late evening satellite image is the first two of perhaps four separate waves of moisture that will pass through South California between Monday and Friday.  The waves, or periods of stormy weather will be Southern California’s first widespread significant rain of this El Niño  season.

January 03, 2016Blogwestcoast0300z Closeup

Another image showing atmospheric moisture content also shows two narrow bands of tropical moisture feeding up from equatorial regions into the approaching storms. Also notice the fat ribbon of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to Europe. While the U.S. endured record warmth, tornadoes and flooding for the Holidays, The British Isles were swamped by stormy weather as well. All signs El Niño continues to have a major influence on  weather Worldwide.January 03, 2016BlogMorphed0300z - Close

One last image to try and answer the question of why the Mighty Mississippi is in flood in January. The dark red over Central Missouri indicates up to 10 inches of rain over a 300 mile stretch from St. Louis to Joplin. Most of that rain occurring in the last seven days.

December 30, 2015rainfall14day - Copy

In coming days we will look at January’s cold turn in the East where record warmth ruled the Christmas Holiday.

Below, a cloud covers the summit of Mt. Lassen on the 1st day of the year.Lassen Peak16-01-01-01

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Cover2 redo

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill.