Tag Archives: Severe Weather

Severe weather threat on the horizon.

February 01, 2016

Severe weather threat on the horizon for Tuesday. This is the Storm Prediction Center’s Day 2 outlook for tomorrow, Tuesday February 2, 2016.February 01, 2016day2otlk_0700Sunday’s afternoon highs were plenty warm in the Southern United States to support a bout of spring-like severe storms in the dead of winter.February 01, 2016maximumfor2016Blog - BlogCopy

The jet stream and surface features in almost perfect alignment for severe weather in the SPC’s outlook area. Below are 500mb and surface forecast for 21z Tuesday afternoon.

February 01,2016forcast45hrTuesFeb02Capture -Blog Copy

Now compare the forecast 500mb for later today, 00z February 02, 2016February 01, 2016Bloggfs_namer_024_500_vort_ht

with 12z February 05, 2008, the beginning of the Super Tuesday Outbreak that produced 87 tornadoes over two days killing 56.  The features the two maps have in common would include the event driving deep upper low vicinity Colorado/New Mexico Border, the kicker, just west of the Pacific Northwest, the next disturbance in the series and the polar vortex well north over Hudson’s bay.

February 05, 2008mb500for2016Blog

So, heads up, weather folks are all bent out of shape about this one for a reason. If you do live in the yellow slight risk area, or orange enhanced region there is a real threat for damaging weather with the passage of this weather system.

Southern California wind observations from Sunday January 31, 2016 showing the wind energy of our approaching weather system.

Santa Barbara Island gusting to 79mph.           San Clemente gusting to 56 mph.

January 31, 2016surfsouthcalifornia840pm - Copy

Floods, snowstorms, and tornadoes oddly enough are all in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1983 and 1998 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

El Niño at work, increase in cloud over the High Sierra.January 28, 2016milkranch0530pm - Copy

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Cover2 redo

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill.

Hurricane moves away, but still a 1000 year flood

October 06, 2015 – Hurricane moves away, but still a 1000 year flood

Below are some of the highest rainfall amounts in Charleston County, South Carolina from the recent storm. These are four day amounts, Friday Oct. 2 thru Monday Oct. 5.  There is no landform that can absorb 26 inches of rain in less than 4 days. That is nearly 6 months of rain in 4 days.



3 ESE CAINHOY                    25.50  10/05 STORM TOTAL


5 SSE CHARLESTON          23.61  10/05 COCORAHS

3 SW FOLLY BEACH            21.45 10/05 COCORAHS

This was the last image on my last blog early Saturday showing the rain in progress across  The Palmetto State .

October 03, 2015 Joaquin hurradarchs0626z

The deluge continued into Saturday across mainly South Carolina.  Regional radar and water vapor imagery show the narrow channel of moisture  from the hurricane to South Carolina .

October 03, 2015 Joaquinhurricane0940z - Copy2

With both the Perfect Storm of October 1991, and the record Maine flood of October 1996, it was dying and decaying tropical systems that kicked in the excess moisture.

Water vapor image from midday Saturday showing a rare eye from Joaquin when the storm was near its strongest point.  The image was taken around the same time Air Force reconnaissance  survived a gust to 144 knots which is about 165 mph. The Hurricane Center briefly lifted top winds on the hurricane to 155 mph, just under Category 5 status.

October 03, 2015 Joaquinhurricane1840z

MAX FL WIND 144 KT 148 / 14 NM 14:46:30Z

Maximum Flight Level Wind 144 Knots from 148 degrees or SSE, the observation occurred 14 nautical miles from the center of Joaquin at 14:46z or 10:36 AM EST  Saturday morning.

Again 144 knots is about 165 mph, all this from a VORTEX DATA MESSAGE sent by Air Force reconnaissance.  The entire message below includes a description of the ride into the storm and what they found when they got there,  Moderate turbulence inbound. Clear above in Center.

URNT12 KNHC 031523
A. 03/14:51:00Z
B. 25 deg 51 min N
071 deg 48 min W
C. 700 mb 2523 m
D. 138 kt
E. 147 deg 15 nm
F. 233 deg 144 kt
G. 148 deg 14 nm
H. EXTRAP 934 mb
I. 13 C / 3044 m
J. 17 C / 3046 m
K. NA / NA
L. Closed
M. C20
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF304 1311A JOAQUIN            OB 18
MAX FL WIND 144 KT 148 / 14 NM 14:46:30Z
Eye sonde failed.  Moderate turbulence inbound.  Clear above in Center.

The rain Friday into Saturday was already creating a disaster, but the rain continued, and it continued across the same South Carolina counties thru Saturday, Saturday night and into Sunday.  Hurricane Joaquin traveled hundreds of miles and the moisture channel just pivoted with the storm never losing its connection to South Carolina.

Saturday morning                                                                  Sunday morning

October 03, 2015 Joaquinhurricane2040z - Copy

The hurricane actually did just move away.  This is quite miraculous considering what some of the model forecasts were doing with a possible landfall.

So,  a unique event to be sure, we were fortunate the hurricane itself stayed far from the United States.  South Carolina did NOT get another Hugo.  But still got nailed with what is being called a “1000 year” event.  An event of this magnitude is expected once every 1000 years.

El Niño is still alive and well in early October, the most recent weekly region 3.4 anomalies are running dead even with 1997.  So, this El Niño thing is happening, we gotta be on guard.  The Joaquin situation evolved very quickly.  It really could have been any where along the coast.  So, who’s going to be next?  When is the next 1000 year flood?

01OCT1997      29.1C    2.4C

30SEP2015      29.1C     2.4C

More on these warm anomalies later this week.

Welcome to El Niño.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, What we don’t, and Why you should care!

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill