Tag Archives: “atmospheric river”

Finally a Series of storms for California.

December 03, 2015

Today, the first in a series of early December storms will roll across portions of Oregon and Northern California.  Inches of rain and feet of snow driven by winds to hurricane force will impact this wide region Thursday the 3rd into Friday the 4th of December.

The image below is from late Wednesday, the storm is poised just off the coast.December 03, 2015westfulldiskIR0000z - Copy

Closer view 8 hours later, early Thursday morning 0800z. Solid cloud cover associated with steadier precipitation. Speckled clouds west side of storm system a sign of cold air streaming south and a vigorous strengthening system.  Big storm … today.

December 03, 2015 Bloglatest_west_0800ir4_nh - Copy

Forecast map for Thursday morning December 3rd from this  Blog post a week ago.November 26, 2015Bloggfs_npac_180_surf - Copy

Forecast map for Thursday morning December 3rd from Wednesday evening.

Compare storm location and strength of system approaching West Coast, also notice Southeast storm in reality has already moved out.December 03, 2015gfs_npac_012_1000_500_thick - Copy

So, this particular run of the model did a little better with timing on the West Coast system. As we look ahead a few more days to this weekend. This “particular run of the model” begins to take on the “atmospheric river” configuration that the West Coast and especially California needs to be ready for as the more serious winter storms appear to be upon us.December 03, 2015bloggfs_npac_078_1000_500_thick - Copy

A series of storms spread across the Pacific Ocean all headed toward our West Coast and portions of California, but not necessarily Los Angeles or San Diego, at least not at first. This first series of storms appears to target the Southern Cascades, the Siskiyou, and the Northern Sierra Nevada.  Southern California may do better with a system toward the end of the series around Thursday the 10th. December 03, 2015bloggfs_npac_078_500_vort_ht - Copy

It really is quite the chart. A straight shot right across the Pacific. The search for a good example of the Pacific “atmospheric river” for Chapter II of the book took me back to January of 2010.  Now here we are early December 2015 with one of the strongest  El Niño ever and the forecast model just starts spitting out great examples of this relatively rare phenomena.

The average SST (sea surface temperature) anomaly for November 2015 was +2.98. A three month running average of 1.50 is considered significant.

A long and eventful Meteorological Winter has indeed begun.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Cover2

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill.

A +3.1 is a most extraordinary weekly reading

November 24, 2015

The weekly sea surface temperature anomalies posted for the week of November 18 continue to climb in the  3.4 Niño region of the Pacific. This year’s sea surface temperatures have surged ahead of the record pace of 1997 El Niño .

04NOV2015        29.5   +2.8                                 05NOV1997     29.2   +2.6
11NOV2015        29.7   +3.0                                 12NOV1997     29.3   +2.7
18NOV2015      29.7   +3.1                             19NOV1997     29.3   +2.7

A +3.1  is a most extraordinary weekly reading.  It will mean a lot more if this extremely high reading will linger for the next two or three months.  If these extreme anomalies do last through January into February, it will be a very interesting winter indeed.

Map below clearly illustrates the El Niño warming stretching for 6000 miles along the equator from the South American coast to near 180 degrees or the International Dateline.November 18, 2015ninoweeklyanomaliesglobal - Copy

Current long range forecast showing signs of wetter weather pattern,  an “atmospheric river” type configuration across the Pacific and into the West Coast including California.

November 23, 2015 18zrungfs_npac171_500_vort_ht

Despite a few healthy storms farther north, the Southern Sierra Nevada still look rather light on the snow cover. All this should change with the Holiday storm later this week and the pattern above developing by early next week. Note the green grass on foreground hills, a sign of some recent moisture.

november 23, 2015mororockalta1845z - Copy

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Cover2

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill