Daily Archives: December 1, 2015

A +2.98 means November SST’s were record warm.

December 01, 2015

Despite a slight decrease in weekly SST’s  this week, a +3.0 for the final week of the month was warm enough to give November a record high average. The average SST (sea surface temperature) anomaly for November 2015 was +2.98. The warmest month previously was January of 1983 at +2.79. The warmest month in record season of 1997 was December at +2.69.  Values used for my calculations listed below were retrieved from the CPC’s website.


Latest weekly SST’s for the 3.4 Niño region

04NOV2015        29.5   +2.8                             05NOV1997     29.2   +2.6
11NOV2015        29.7   +3.0                             12NOV1997     29.3   +2.7
18NOV2015        29.7   +3.1                             19NOV1997     29.3   +2.7
25NOV2015      29.6   +3.0                            26NOV1997     29.4   +2.8

Nov. average   29.6   +2.975                                                 29.3     +2.700


Warmest monthly SST’s for the 3.4 Niño region
YR   MON   NINO3.4    ANOM
1982  12      29.21    +2.64
1983   1        29.36    +2.79

1997  11     29.32    +2.67        (29.3     +2.700)
1997  12     29.26    +2.69
2015  10    29.15    +2.46

2015 11    29.60   +2.98

The monthly averages will be officially update on the CPC website later this week, we will revisit the subject at that time.


A graphical representation of the current Eastern Pacific warming compared to last year and the year before.December 01, 2015BlogOctober2015SST - Copy

November 2014, last year, just a hint of the coming event.December 01, 2015BlogNovember2014SST - Copy

November 2013, two years ago, nothing of note in the eastern Pacific.December 01, 2015BlogNovember2013SST - Copy

This El Niño event is a big deal. I am afraid the real “fun” has barely begun.

Monday evening satellite image clearly showing the moisture connection from the Eastern Equatorial Pacific into North America. Tropical systems Rick and Sandra are long gone but the tropical connection to the 3.4 Niño region persists in the early days of December.

December 01, 2015westfulldisk0000z - Copy

Here is a couple of quick lines from Chapter IV of my book that illustrate why this connection can be a winter long problem.

“The impact of the 1983 El Niño was pretty far reaching right here in the U.S. A winter so wet, over such an expansive area, that two of our biggest river basins were still above flood stage entering the summer months. Pacific Ocean temperatures as warm as 1983 at this point in the season is NOT a good thing.”

“the two biggest floods on the Lower (Mississippi) River Basin, … have been during Pacific warming events.”

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.


Available at Amazon

Wild Bill.