September 29, 2015

close to an exact match

Here is a quick side by side comparison of weekly SST anomalies in the El Niño 3.4 region
for the last three months. This year 2015 to the left, 1997 to the right.
01JUL2015      28.9 1.4            02JUL1997     29.0 1.5
08JUL2015      28.8 1.5            09JUL1997     28.9 1.6
15JUL2015      28.9 1.7            16JUL1997     29.0 1.8
22JUL2015      28.8 1.6            23JUL1997     28.8 1.7
29JUL2015      28.8 1.7            30JUL1997     28.9 1.9

05AUG2015      28.9 1.9            06AUG1997     28.8 1.8
12AUG2015      28.9 2.0            13AUG1997     28.9 2.0
19AUG2015      28.9 2.1            20AUG1997     28.9 2.1
26AUG2015      29.0 2.2            27AUG1997     28.8 2.0

02SEP2015      28.9 2.1            03SEP1997     28.9 2.1
09SEP2015      29.0 2.3            10SEP1997     28.9 2.2
16SEP2015      29.0 2.3            17SEP1997     28.9 2.2
23SEP2015      29.0 2.3            24SEP1997     28.9 2.2
There is no more than 2 tenths of a degree difference in any week over the last 13 weeks.
When it comes to scientific comparison this may be as close to an exact match as you will ever see.
As we discussed in El Niño, The Wild side of the Weather Cycle, an experience similar to 1997, is going to have its disadvantages. The 1997-98 El Niño was the strongest and had impacts around the world.

Active weather continues in late September with flooding rains in Southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Heavy rain becomes a threat for the East coast, and especially the Northeast as a series of events including a tropical storm line up to bother The East in the final days of September.

The need to stay alert and understand the threats for active weather is already increasing due to the prominence of the current El Niño.

Wild Bill